The 15th SAARC Summit: Expectations and Challenges

The South Asian countries will soon gather for the annual regional ritual – Summit of the South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC). The 15th SAARC Summit is due to take place in Sri Lanka on 2nd-3rd August 2008. Since its inception in 1985 the SAARC is struggling to survive and promising to thrive. The regional forum was inaugurated to strengthen socio-economic cooperation among South Asian countries thereby laying the groundwork for political trust-building. Unfortunately, the programmes of socio-economic and cultural cooperation have been hijacked by political differences and the SAARC is struggling to manage regional animosities.

The upcoming Summit will as usual be conducted in a challenged regional environment. Almost every member country is caught in a whirlwind of political crisis. Nepal, Pakistan and Bangladesh are being managed through interim political arrangements paving the way for new governments to take control. Bhutan and Afghanistan are experimenting with the modern democratic practices marking an important phase of political transitions within each country. The Left parties in India have withdrawn support from the Congress-led UPA government which is expected to prove its majority before the Summit commences. Maldives is expected to witness the first ever multi-party elections this year. The host, Sri Lanka, is facing a challenging security situation as the LTTE has renewed its assaults against the Singhalese dominated government. Some groups of media activists in Sri Lanka have even threatened to boycott the Summit in protest of the increasing attacks against journalists in the country. It seems ironical that in the midst such national political crisis, SAARC has designated 2008 as the ‘Year of Good Governance’.

The national challenges are further complicated by the deteriorating regional strategic environment. The induction of the Marxist forces into mainstream politics in Nepal is expected to embolden Left wing groups in the region arousing heightened security concerns. Attack on the Indian Embassy in Kabul, Afghanistan, for which Pakistan is being blamed, has created a strategic quagmire for the three states. India is also concerned about the increasing supply of arms to the Sri Lankan government by China and Pakistan. The Armed Forces Division of the Bangladesh has received instruction from the Office of the Chief Advisor to allow surveys by U.S. Marine Corps along the Indo-Bangladesh border for identifying the movement of extremists and terrorists across the border. Such growing influence of extra-regional actors in South Asia is expected to be a cause of concern for India.

India’s relations with most regional states are either strained or are being re-defined in response to changing national and regional realities. The Maoist led government in Nepal is intending to scrap the 58 year old Indo-Nepal Peace and Friendship Treaty and review all existing bilateral arrangements. In 2007, the India-Bhutan Treaty of 1949 had been updated to replace the clause where Bhutan is expected to be guided by India in regard to the former’s external relations with the need for ‘friendly cooperation’ on the issue. The government of Bangladesh has out rightly rejected India’s demand to sign a five year agreement on allowing transit rights to North-East India at the sidelines of the upcoming Summit. India’s National Security Adviser M.K. Narayanan has gone to the extent of demanding the scrapping of Pakistan’s ISI following its alleged involvement in the recent attack on the Indian Embassy in Kabul.

The repercussions of global developments on the region are expected to further burden the SAARC process. The U.S. is reinforcing its strategic presence in Afghanistan following indications of the resurgence of the Taliban. U.S. army personnel are pressing for attacking suspected militant camps inside Pakistan. The member states are expected to refer to the ongoing discussions on the Indo-U.S. nuclear deal, especially when India had for several years favored the infamous ‘Indira Doctrine’ of minimizing external involvement in region. After attempting to remain insulated from global power politics for more than two decades, SAARC is in need to develop responses on the direct involvement of global actors with the regional states.

The agenda of the Summit compounds the prevalent national and regional and global challenges making this a crucial meeting of regional Heads of States. The theme of 15th SAARC Summit is ‘Towards a South Asian Union: Growing Together”. For realizing the goal of a Union in South Asia, psycho-political issues of leadership and perceptions have to be continuously addressed, rather than rhetorical referrences at Summit meetings. The rising food and oil prices are expected to dominate the Summit proceedings. This would generate additional pressures for operationalizing the SAARC Food Bank, which is yet to be ratified by four member states. The 14th SAARC Summit had emphasized on commencement of the implementation phase of the SAARC programmes and hence the progress on the SAARC Development Fund and South Asia University is expected to be placed before the Colombo Summit. SAARC has for long projected a selected theme for each Summit, supported by elaborated plans for realizing the proposals. The follow-up on issues of combating terrorism and promoting connectivity, highlighted during the previous Summit, is expected to be included on the agenda for reconsidering proposed goals and strategies.

Expecting great results from SAARC is a clear defiance of political reasoning. It is important to realize that SAARC is a forum of countries that are still under-going the process of state and nation building and hence it is an inherently challenged group. Nevertheless, the member countries have to make an honest attempt at collectivization of mutual efforts for gaining maximum benefits. Contrary to popular expectation, existence of SAARC cannot positively impact regional relations, but a positive transformation in regional perceptions can stimulate the activities of SAARC.